Dec 6th 2007 | ALMATY
From The Economist print edition

Violator becomes arbiter

违规者变成仲裁者

    FOUR years of intense diplomacy bore fruit on November 30th when the Organisation for Security and Co-operation in Europe (OSCE) awarded its rotating chairmanship in 2010 to Kazakhstan. Since the decision, made at a meeting in Madrid, Kazakhstan's people have been treated to euphoric outbursts by their usually reserved top officials. Kanat Saudabayev, the state secretary (government spokesman), credited the remarkable achievement above all to the extraordinary wisdom of Kazakhstan's people when they elected the “truly God-sent Nursultan Nazarbayev” as their president in 1991.
    11月30日，四年的紧张外交有了结果，当欧洲的（欧安组织）安全与合作组织选出其在2010年的轮值主席，为哈萨克斯坦。自从在马德里的其中一个会议上做出这一决定，哈萨克斯坦的人对他们通常预留的高层官员欣喜若狂。 国务秘书（政府发言人） ，kanat saudabayev ，记入了这一显著的成就，首先是哈萨克斯坦人民的非凡的智慧，，正是他们在1991年选出"真正上帝派遣纳扎尔巴耶夫"作为他们的总统。

    Such reverence to Kazakhstan's authoritarian head of state may well be a precondition of political longevity. But it is hardly what one would expect to hear in a country ready to lead a 56-member organisation that monitors human rights and elections. Human Rights Watch, a lobbying group, said the choice of Kazakhstan would undermine the integrity of the OSCE's human-rights principles.
    这样尊敬哈萨克斯坦的国家元首可能是长期政治一个先决条件。但是是很难有什么人会期待听到一个国家愿意率领一个56人组成的组织，其可监测人权和选举。人权观察组织的游说集团说，选择哈萨克斯坦将有害于欧安组织 '人力人权原则。

Indeed, the OSCE itself has so far failed to judge a single election in Kazakhstan free and fair. Yet the Kazakhstani leadership has now pledged to uphold and to strengthen its principles, in Mr Saudabayev's words, “from Vancouver to Vladivostok”. Kazakhstan will become the first former Soviet republic to chair the OSCE. Dosym Satpayev, an independent political analyst, reckons its poor human-rights record and spotty democratic credentials were trumped by geopolitical calculation and hopes of energy co-operation with the oil-rich country.
事实上，欧安组织本身至今仍无法判断在哈的选举是自由和公平的。然而，中哈领导人已承诺已经在坚持和加强其原则，用议员saudabayev的话说，是"从温哥华到符拉迪沃斯托克" 。哈萨克斯坦将成为第一个前苏联加盟的共和国来主持欧安组织 。dosym satpayev ，一个独立的政治分析家估计，其恶劣的人权记录和质量参差不齐民主证书莫须有的，根据地缘政治计算，以及加强与石油资源丰富的国家的联系的愿望。

    Mr Satpayev says that denying Kazakhstan the coveted honour might have alienated its leaders and driven it into closer ties with China, with which it is already linked through the Shanghai Co-operation Organisation, a security forum. Or it might have nudged the country even more firmly into the camp of Russia, Kazakhstan's staunchest supporter in OSCE decision-making councils. The chairmanship was the price paid to keep Kazakhstan on good terms with the West and to avoid further antagonising Russia, which is already squabbling with America over the course the OSCE should take.
    议员satpayev说，拒绝哈萨克斯坦令人垂涎的荣誉有可能疏远其领导人并把他带给与中国的更密切的关系，它已经通过上海合作组织被联系在一起，其不过是一个安全论坛。或者,欧安组织的决策局,可能已经把国家更加坚定地送给俄罗斯的营地，哈萨克斯坦最坚定的支持者。担任主席所付出的代价是，保持哈萨克斯坦与西方的良好的关系，并避免进一步与俄罗斯敌对，这已是与美国争吵超过的过程中，欧安组织应进行的议程。
    Whatever happened behind the scenes in Madrid, the political elite in Kazakhstan is jubilant that, as it sees it, the country has at last been accepted as an equal player in global affairs because of its democratic and free-market reforms. However, Marat Tazhin, the foreign minister, has stressed the great weight on Kazakhstan's shoulders if it is to live up to the OSCE's obligations. He promised a change of the election law by 2010 and a freer press. With Kazakhstan facing greater international scrutiny, the opposition may at least now have a chance to have its voice heard. Even so, Mr Satpayev concludes, “The OSCE has won tactically, but lost strategically.”
    无论在幕后马德里发生了什么，在哈萨克斯坦的政治精英都是欢呼的，因为它看来，因为它的民主和自由市场改革，该国已在去年被接受为一个在全球事务中平等的地位。不过，外交部长赛塔任，已经对哈萨克斯坦强加了巨大的压力，如果承担起欧安组织 '的义务。他许诺在2010年改变选举法，以及更大的的新闻自由。哈萨克斯坦将面临着更大的国际社会的监督，所以在野党可能，至少现在有机会拥有自己的声音。即便如此，satpayev先生得出结论， " 欧安组织在战术上赢了，但在战略上输了" 。

Dec 6th 2007 | NEW YORK
From The Economist print edition

How much will the Bay State's plan for universal health coverage cost?
海湾国家的计划中，有多少是为全民健康的保险费用？

    WHEN Massachusetts forged ahead with a plan for universal health coverage for all its citizens, many were sceptical. It will soon be clear whether the doubters were right. The plan faces its first big test this month: uninsured residents must sign up for a health plan by the end of the year or be fined.
    当马萨诸塞州率先为所有市民的全民健康保险制定一个工作计划的时候，有很多人持怀疑态度。而且很快将明确抱怀疑态度是否是正确的。该计划面临本月的第一次重大考验：未投保居民必须在今年年底签署了一个健康计划否则会被处以罚款。
    Early signs suggest the plan is going well. Some critics had argued that it would not achieve universal coverage because the penalties for non-compliance (about $220, though this figure will rise sharply next year) were too small, but this week state officials announced that some 300,000 had already signed up. That is roughly half of the state's uninsured population, reckoned to be between 500,000 and 700,000. However, many of those who have recently signed up are poorer people whose new insurance is being subsidised, so the real test is yet to come.
    早期迹象显示，该计划进展顺利。有批评家指出它不会实现普及，因为不遵守的罚金（约220美元，尽管这个数字明年将会大幅增加）太小了，但这个星期国务院官员宣布，约30万已签订了协议。这仅仅是国家大约一半的无保险的人口，总数将有近50万到70万人。然而，最近签署了的大多是穷人，其新的保险是受资助的，所以真正的考验还在后头。
Another worry has been that the scheme will “crowd out” the private sector by encouraging employers to drop coverage. Here too the evidence is positive, though tentative. Several surveys of employers suggest that very few so far (only 3% according to one poll) have stopped covering their workers.
另一种忧虑已经表示，该计划将通过鼓励雇主去降低投保的比例"排挤"私人部门。在这里证据是正面的，但是也仅仅是暂时的。几次对雇主的调查表明，至今极少数（据一项民意调查只有3 ％）已停止给他们的工人投保。

    The news on cost is less encouraging. Over the long haul, universal coverage schemes are supposed to reduce costs (see article). Another reason to think cost rises would slow down under the Massachusetts scheme is the “Connector”, a government-created and partly-subsidised market-place for insurance products that aims to beg, bully and badger health-care providers and insurers into containing costs.
    关于花费的新闻不是那么令人鼓舞。从长期来看，普及计划是为了降低成本（见文章 ）。根据麻省理工的计划，另一个认为成本上涨将放缓的原因是"通道" ，这是一个由政府制造的，部分补贴的为保险产品设立的市场，目的是为了乞讨，欺负和获得保健服务提供者和保险公司进入控制成本。

    That is a fine theory, but in practice, concedes Jonathan Gruber, a professor at MIT and an architect of the state's reform plan, “We're struggling with this.” Next year's insurance premiums are likely to rise by 10-12%, confirms James Roosevelt, head of the organisation representing the state's health plans. Officials running the new health-reform effort this week declared grandly that costs must not increase by more than 5% next year—but, as Mr Roosevelt observes, that seems “more hopeful than likely”. Mr Gruber explains that the state can influence rates for those who get subsidies, but says that commercial insurers can do pretty much what they like about rates for the rest of the population.
    这是一个很好的理论，但是在实践中乔纳森格鲁伯，一位在麻省理工学院的教授，同时也是一名国家的改革计划的建筑师，也承认 "我们正在为此挣扎着"。 代表国家的卫生计划组织的主管，詹姆斯罗斯福证实了，下一年度的保险费可能会上涨10-12 ％。官员做出了新的医疗改革的努力，并在本星期堂而皇之地宣布说，明年成本绝不能增加超过百分之五，但是，正如罗斯福指出的，这似乎是"更有希望而不是可能" 。 格鲁伯先生解释说，国家可以为那些得到补贴的人变动利率，但也表示，商业保险公司可以做的漂亮得多，他们喜欢把费率加在其余的人身上。

    If costs continue to soar, the state will not be able to afford this scheme for long, and it will become unpopular. Mindful of the brewing storm, the state's insurers are launching a charm offensive. Mr Roosevelt's group promises much greater transparency in insurance pricing and wants hospitals to do the same. Will that be enough? Sunlight is a powerful disinfectant—but it may meet its match in health-care inflation.
    如果成本继续上升，该国将不能够长时间地负担得起这项计划，该计划也会变得不受欢迎。念及可能酝酿中的风暴，国家的保险公司都展开魅力攻势。罗斯福先生的集团承诺在保险定价上更大的透明度，并希望医院也能这样做。这是否足够？阳光是一个有力的消毒剂-但也可能在保健通货膨胀上遇到对手。

Dec 6th 2007 | NEW YORK
From The Economist print edition

How much will the Bay State's plan for universal health coverage cost?
海湾国家的计划中，有多少是为全民健康的保险费用？

    WHEN Massachusetts forged ahead with a plan for universal health coverage for all its citizens, many were sceptical. It will soon be clear whether the doubters were right. The plan faces its first big test this month: uninsured residents must sign up for a health plan by the end of the year or be fined.
    当马萨诸塞州率先为所有市民的全民健康保险制定一个工作计划的时候，有很多人持怀疑态度。而且很快将明确抱怀疑态度是否是正确的。该计划面临本月的第一次重大考验：未投保居民必须在今年年底签署了一个健康计划否则会被处以罚款。
    Early signs suggest the plan is going well. Some critics had argued that it would not achieve universal coverage because the penalties for non-compliance (about $220, though this figure will rise sharply next year) were too small, but this week state officials announced that some 300,000 had already signed up. That is roughly half of the state's uninsured population, reckoned to be between 500,000 and 700,000. However, many of those who have recently signed up are poorer people whose new insurance is being subsidised, so the real test is yet to come.
    早期迹象显示，该计划进展顺利。有批评家指出它不会实现普及，因为不遵守的罚金（约220美元，尽管这个数字明年将会大幅增加）太小了，但这个星期国务院官员宣布，约30万已签订了协议。这仅仅是国家大约一半的无保险的人口，总数将有近50万到70万人。然而，最近签署了的大多是穷人，其新的保险是受资助的，所以真正的考验还在后头。
Another worry has been that the scheme will “crowd out” the private sector by encouraging employers to drop coverage. Here too the evidence is positive, though tentative. Several surveys of employers suggest that very few so far (only 3% according to one poll) have stopped covering their workers.
另一种忧虑已经表示，该计划将通过鼓励雇主去降低投保的比例"排挤"私人部门。在这里证据是正面的，但是也仅仅是暂时的。几次对雇主的调查表明，至今极少数（据一项民意调查只有3 ％）已停止给他们的工人投保。

    The news on cost is less encouraging. Over the long haul, universal coverage schemes are supposed to reduce costs (see article). Another reason to think cost rises would slow down under the Massachusetts scheme is the “Connector”, a government-created and partly-subsidised market-place for insurance products that aims to beg, bully and badger health-care providers and insurers into containing costs.
    关于花费的新闻不是那么令人鼓舞。从长期来看，普及计划是为了降低成本（见文章 ）。根据麻省理工的计划，另一个认为成本上涨将放缓的原因是"通道" ，这是一个由政府制造的，部分补贴的为保险产品设立的市场，目的是为了乞讨，欺负和获得保健服务提供者和保险公司进入控制成本。

    That is a fine theory, but in practice, concedes Jonathan Gruber, a professor at MIT and an architect of the state's reform plan, “We're struggling with this.” Next year's insurance premiums are likely to rise by 10-12%, confirms James Roosevelt, head of the organisation representing the state's health plans. Officials running the new health-reform effort this week declared grandly that costs must not increase by more than 5% next year—but, as Mr Roosevelt observes, that seems “more hopeful than likely”. Mr Gruber explains that the state can influence rates for those who get subsidies, but says that commercial insurers can do pretty much what they like about rates for the rest of the population.
    这是一个很好的理论，但是在实践中乔纳森格鲁伯，一位在麻省理工学院的教授，同时也是一名国家的改革计划的建筑师，也承认 "我们正在为此挣扎着"。 代表国家的卫生计划组织的主管，詹姆斯罗斯福证实了，下一年度的保险费可能会上涨10-12 ％。官员做出了新的医疗改革的努力，并在本星期堂而皇之地宣布说，明年成本绝不能增加超过百分之五，但是，正如罗斯福指出的，这似乎是"更有希望而不是可能" 。 格鲁伯先生解释说，国家可以为那些得到补贴的人变动利率，但也表示，商业保险公司可以做的漂亮得多，他们喜欢把费率加在其余的人身上。

    If costs continue to soar, the state will not be able to afford this scheme for long, and it will become unpopular. Mindful of the brewing storm, the state's insurers are launching a charm offensive. Mr Roosevelt's group promises much greater transparency in insurance pricing and wants hospitals to do the same. Will that be enough? Sunlight is a powerful disinfectant—but it may meet its match in health-care inflation.
    如果成本继续上升，该国将不能够长时间地负担得起这项计划，该计划也会变得不受欢迎。念及可能酝酿中的风暴，国家的保险公司都展开魅力攻势。罗斯福先生的集团承诺在保险定价上更大的透明度，并希望医院也能这样做。这是否足够？阳光是一个有力的消毒剂-但也可能在保健通货膨胀上遇到对手。

With the exception of tiny Luxembourg, Norway has the highest GDP per head of the 30 mainly rich countries in the OECD, according to new calculations from the Paris-based organisation. Higher oil revenues raised Norway's GDP per head to 164% of the OECD average by 2005, an increase of 19 percentage points from 2002. Comparisons are based on purchasing-power parity, which takes account of price differences between countries. On that basis, living standards in Britain, Germany, Japan, France and Italy are all close to the OECD average. America's income per head is comfortably above that level. Poland, Mexico and Turkey are the club's poorest members, with incomes per head of less than half the average.

除了小小的卢森堡，在经合组织的30个主要的富裕国家中，挪威拥有最高水平的人均本地生产总值，这由总部设在巴黎的组织，根据新的计算方法得到的。较高的石油收入使挪威的人均本地生产总值高达经合组织2005年平均水平的164 ％ ，从2002年起，增加了19个百分点。比较是基于同等的购买力水平，这是考虑到国家间的价格不等。 在此基础上，在英国，德国，日本，法国和意大利，人民的生活水平都接近经合组织的平均水平。美国的人均收入是恰当地超过合理的水平。波兰，墨西哥和土耳其是俱乐部最贫困的成员，人均收入不到平均水平的一半。

Consumer credit

Card sharks

Nov 29th 2007 | LONDON AND NEW YORK
From The Economist print edition

消费信贷

信用卡的吞噬

2007年11月29日|伦敦和纽约

Is the subprime mortgage crisis infecting America's credit-card market?

次信贷危机传染美国的信用卡市场？

WHEN there is blood in the water, it is only natural that dorsal fins swirl around excitedly. Now that America's housing market is ailing, predators have their sights on the country's credit-card market. Analysts at Goldman Sachs reckon that credit-card losses could reach $99 billion if contagion spreads from subprime mortgages to other forms of consumer credit. Signs of strain are clearly visible. There are rises in both the charge-off and delinquency rates, which measure the share of balances that are uncollectable or more than 30 days late respectively. HSBC announced last month that it had taken a $1.4 billion charge in its American consumer-finance business, partly because of weakness among card borrowers.
当水中有血的时候，很自然的它的背鳍兴奋地在附近打转。 现在，美国的住房市场疲弱，食肉动物们便盯上了国家的信用卡市场。高盛分析师认为，如果危机从次抵押贷款蔓延到其他形式的消费信贷等，信用卡的损失可能达到990亿美元。紧压的迹象清晰可见。在撇帐及拖欠比率这两方面都有上升，其中拖欠比率是衡量无法收回或30天以上才能回收的结存股票。 汇丰银行上月宣布，它已经采取了14亿美元用在其美国的消费信贷业务，部分原因是借贷卡的借软弱。

It is too early to panic, though. Charge-offs and delinquencies are still low. According to Moody's, a rating agency, the third-quarter delinquency rate of 3.89% was almost a full percentage point below the historical average. The deterioration in rates can be partly explained by technical factors. A change in America's personal-bankruptcy laws in 2005 led to an abrupt fall in bankruptcy filings, which in turn account for a big chunk of credit-card losses; the number of filings (and thus charge-off rates) would be rising again, whether or not overall conditions for borrowers were getting worse.
恐慌还言之尚早。撇帐及拖欠情况仍然偏低。根据穆迪的评级机构，其第三季度拖欠率3.89 ％ ，低于历史平均水平近1个百分点。 恶化率可以由技术因素来解释。美国个人破产法的改变，在2005年导致了一场申请破产的急跌，，同时又占了这么一大块信用卡损失;备案的人数（以及撇帐率）将再次上升，不管怎样，借贷的整体的环境也越来越差。

The industry also reports solid payment rates, which show how much of their debt consumers pay off each month. And confidence in credit-card asset-backed securities is pretty firm despite paralysis in other corners of structured finance. Dennis Moroney of TowerGroup, a research firm, predicts that issuance volumes for 2007 will end up being 25% higher than last year.
业界还报告了固定的支付利率，其中显示消费者每个月还清多少债务。尽管在角落的结构性融资瘫痪了，信用卡资产支持证券的信心是相当坚定的。丹尼斯墨尔本律师斯塔的towergoup的一家研究公司预测，在2007年发行量将最终会高于去年25 ％ 。

Direct channels of infection between the subprime-mortgage crisis and the credit-card market certainly exist: consumers are likelier to load up on credit-card debt now that home-equity loans are drying up. But card issuers look at cash flow rather than asset values, so falling house prices do not necessarily trigger a change in borrowers' creditworthiness. They may even work to issuers' advantage. The incentives for consumers to keep paying the mortgage decrease if properties are worth less than the value of the loan; card debt rises higher up the list of repayment priorities as a result.
感染在次信贷危机和信用卡市场之间的的确存在直接渠道影响：消费者更有可能负担了信用卡债务，因为现在房屋净值贷款率为4.36 ％ 。但发卡机构只看现金流量，而不是资产价值，因此房价下降，并不一定会引发借款人资信的改变。 他们甚至可能以发行人的优势发生作用。如果物业价值低于贷款的价值的话，该奖励办法，让消费者继续减少支付按揭贷款;结果，信用卡债务增加了更高的偿还优先次序名单。

    Card issuers are also able to respond much more swiftly and flexibly to stormier conditions than mortgage lenders are, by changing interest rates or altering credit limits. That should in theory reduce the risk of a rapid repricing of assets. “We are not going to wake up one day and totally revalue the loans,” says Gary Perlin, Capital One's chief financial officer.
   通过改变利率或更改信用额度，发卡机构也能够比抵押贷款放款人响应更为迅速和灵活的波动状况。这在理论上应减少快速的资产重估的风险。"我们并不是某一天去唤醒并使贷款完全升值， "资本的首席财政官，Gary Perlin说。

    If a sudden subprime-style meltdown in the credit-card market is improbable, the risks of a sustained downturn are much more real. If lower house prices and a contraction in credit push America into recession, the industry will undoubtedly face a grimmer future. Keep watching for those dorsal fins.
    如果在信用卡市场上突然次信贷式地崩溃是不大可能发生的，那么风险的持续低迷却是更为真实的。如果降低房价并收缩信贷，推动美国进入衰退期，该行业无疑将面临更为严峻的未来。所以要监视那些露在水面上的背鳍。

A bird's eye view

Nov 29th 2007
From The Economist print edition

Some creatures know how to identify and choose healthy food

一只鸟的视野

Nov 29th 2007 2007年11月29日
经济学人编辑

有些动物，知道如何辨别，选择健康食物

ANTIOXIDANTS are the health freak's weapon of choice. They mop up molecules in the body that would otherwise damage cells and could cause cancer. They are found in many fruits and vegetables, and even in red wine. Without biochemistry, people would not know of their existence. But researchers now think that birds can see them and that they choose foods containing them.
抗氧化剂是生怪胎的首选武器。 他们清剿分子，在体内会损害其他细胞，并可能会引发癌症。他们被发现在很多水果和蔬菜，甚至在红葡萄酒中。没有生物化学的发展，人们并不知道他们的存在。但研究人员现在认为，鸟类可以看见他们和选择含有他们的食品。

In the wild, plants need to disperse their seeds to survive and colonise new areas. One way of doing this is to grow attractive fruits that animals eat, pips and all. The creatures then spread the seeds as nature takes its course. That is why plants produce fruit that is often brightly coloured and tasty. But do animals also choose to eat fruit because it is nutritious?
在野外，植物为了需要播撒他们的种子并开拓新的领域。这样做的一个途径，就是增加能吸引动物的水果，果仁及其它。然后创造者散布种子就象自然界教给它的课程一样。这就是为什么植物生产的水果往往是鲜艳、可口。但动物也可选择吃一些水果，因为它的营养够不够？

To find out, Martin Schaefer of the University of Freiburg, in Germany, and his colleagues set out to see whether creatures can sense antioxidants. They analysed how 60 different fruits appear to the birds that disperse their seeds. Birds see colours in their own way, because they are sensitive to wavelengths, such as ultra-violet, that are invisible to people. The researchers found that birds could clearly perceive the strong ultra-violet coloration given to the fruit by the presence of a group of antioxidants called anthocyanins.

为了弄个明白，德国弗赖堡大学的马丁 schaefer和他的同事们表示，看看是否万物都可以感受到抗氧化剂。他们分析了60种不同的水果如何展示在帮它们传播种子的鸟的面前。鸟以他们自己的方式看见颜色，，因为他们对波长敏感，如紫外线，人是看不见的。研究人员发现，鸟类，可以清楚地察觉到强烈的来自水果的紫外线色彩，这些水果中存在的一组所谓的抗氧化剂——花青素。

That does not necessarily mean that birds would chose anthocyanin-filled fruit. So Dr Schaefer conducted an experiment using 11 captive female blackcaps. For four days, the birds were given a choice between two cups of food that were identical except that the food in one was blue in colour because it contained anthocyanins. All the birds chose the food with the anthocyanins, which confirmed both that the birds could see the compound and had a preference for it. This suggests that, in evolutionary terms, having antioxidants present in fruit would make a plant more successful at attracting seed dispersers.
这并不一定意味着鸟类会选择含有花色苷的水果。所以医生schaefer用11个笼中的黑顶莺 进行了一项试验。4天里，鸟们需要在两个杯子的食物之间作出选择，这两个杯子中只有蓝颜色的食物不相同，因为它包含了花色素苷。所有的鸟都选择了含有花青素的食物，这证实了，鸟类能看见化合物，并且倾向于它。这表明，在进化而言，具有抗氧化剂的果实，使植物更成功吸引种子传播者 。

It also means that the birds may be able to medicate themselves. Dr Schaefer is now examining their choice of diet at stressful times, such as during migration. He wonders whether birds suffering oxidative stress increase their antioxidant consumption by choosing fruits with high anthocyanin content—rather like starting the day with a glass of orange juice when you feel a cold coming on.
这也意味着，鸟类可能可以治疗自己。博士schaefer表示现正积极研究在充满压力的时候其选择的饮食习惯，如在迁移。他不禁怀疑，鸟类忍受着氧化压力，通过选择高花色苷含量的水果增加其抗氧化剂的消费-而不是像你会感到寒冷将要到来，就开始每天喝一杯橙汁似的。

A full-blown dollar collapse would be disastrous. Thankfully, it need not happen
强势美元的崩溃将不堪设想。值得庆幸的是，它将不会发生

THE weather may be cold and wet, but in the rich world's financial markets it is beginning to feel like August all over again. Credit spreads have widened and shares are pitching from gloom to elation as investors look to the Federal Reserve for solace. The anxiety is unmistakable. But this time the scare is about more than bad mortgage loans and their baleful effect on the credit markets. America may be falling into recession. And a new fear now stalks the markets: that the dollar's slide could spin out of control (see article).
天气可能是寒冷而潮湿的，但在发达国家的的金融市场，已经开始觉得好像永远都是八月一样。信用息差已经扩大，而且股份也正在由低谷走向高潮，因为投资者期待从美国联邦储备委员会寻求安慰。焦虑是没有错的。但这个时候的惊吓来自于对信贷市场的非常严重的按揭贷款及其有害作用。美国经济可能会陷入衰退。一种新的恐惧笼罩着市场：美元下跌可能失去控制（见文章 ） 。

A full-blown dollar crisis on top of a credit crunch and a weakening economy would be frightening. It would send financial markets reeling and tie the hands of the Fed, perhaps forcing it to raise interest rates even as recession looms. The sky-high euro would soar further, choking off Europe's growth. Political tensions would also rise. Already Airbus has called the dollar's decline “life-threatening” and France's president, Nicolas Sarkozy, has given warning of “economic war”.
强势美元危机再加上信贷紧缩和经济紧缩将是可怕的。它会发出金融市场调整，并能借助于美联储迫使它提高利率，否则将是经济衰退的威胁。那天价的欧元也将继续爆发，掐断欧洲的成长。政治紧张局势也将上升。空中客车公司已经称美元下跌为"生命受到威胁" ，法国的总统，萨尔科齐，已发出"经济战" 的警告 。

At worst, the shadows could darken further. For half a century the dollar has been the hegemonic currency. A large slice of global trade is counted in dollars. Central banks hold most of their foreign-exchange reserves in dollars, a boon for America that has allowed it to issue debt more cheaply. That dominance has survived dollar slides before, as in the late 1970s and mid-1980s. But now, with the euro as an alternative, the fear is of a sudden shift in the global monetary system, with investors switching quickly from one currency to the other.
更糟的是，这些阴影可能变得更加暗淡。半世纪以来，美元一直是强势货币。很大份额的全球贸易是以美元来计算的。中央银行持有他们的大部分外汇储备是美元，使美国受益的是它得以发行的债券更便宜。即显性在20世纪70年代末和80年代中期，美元下滑之前它的支配地位已经存活下来。但是现在，随着欧元成为一种替代办法，恐怕是一个突然的转变，在现在的全球金融体系下，投资者迅速地从一种货币换到另一种。

So far, this remains only a fear. Although the dollar has been falling at quite a lick—down 6% against a trade-weighted basket of currencies since August—it has seen no chaotic slump, but a slide interspersed, as this week, with brief rallies. Americans' expectations of future inflation have not yet risen much. Yields on government bonds have fallen: clearly, investors do not yet expect higher premiums for safe American assets. Whether disaster strikes depends on what exactly is driving the dollar down and on how policymakers react.
到目前为止，这仍只是一种担心。虽然美元汇率一直加速下滑-自从八月下降了6 ％的对贸易加权货币市场-它并未见到混沌低迷，但在下滑期间，在这一周里出现了简短的重振。美国人预期未来通货膨胀尚未上升得多。国债收益率政府债券下跌了：很明显，投资者没有为安全的美国资产期望更高的回报。是否发生灾害取决于究竟是什么驱使美元下跌，并且看决策者如何反应。

Headwinds and tailwinds

Much of the dollar's weakness is driven by economic fundamentals. Since peaking in 2002, it has fallen by 24% against a trade-weighted basket of currencies. Given America's need to borrow from abroad to finance its consumption, that is neither surprising nor sinister. By inducing Americans to import less and export more, a weaker dollar helps cut the current-account deficit. For America, the medicine has been working—the deficit is down to 5.5% of GDP from a peak of almost 7%.

逆境和顺境

大量的美元的疲软是被经济原理所驱动的。自从高峰在2002年，它已经下降了24 ％ ，对贸易加权的笼统货币。鉴于美国需要借用国外资金来满足消费，既不是不足为奇的，也不险恶。通过引导美国减少进口和增加出口，美元走软有助于削减当前的赤字。对于美国，疗效一直在起作用-赤字下降到5.5 ％ 的GDP，从高峰期的接近700 ％ 。

If the dollar's decline has accelerated of late, that is largely because of the cyclical divergence between America's economy and the rest of the world. America fears recession; the Fed has already cut interest rates by 0.75 percentage points and financial markets are convinced that it will cut another quarter point on December 11th, when it next meets. When America's growth prospects and interest rates fall relative to those elsewhere, a cheaper currency is inevitable.
如果不久之后美元汇率的下降开始加速了，这主要是因为美国的经济与世界其余地区的周期性的分歧。 美国人担忧经济衰退;美联储已调降利率0.75个百分点，并且金融市场都深信，12月11日，当它下次出现的时候，它将削减另外四分之一点。当美国的增长前景和利率下降，相对于其他地区，廉价的货币是无可避免的。

But economic fundamentals are not all that is hurting the dollar. The currency is also suffering because the credit mess is concentrated in dollar assets. Investors' conviction that transparent markets and vigilant regulators make America a safe place to store money has taken a battering from the revelations of recent weeks. Net private capital inflows into America seem to have evaporated since the credit turmoil began. The subprime crisis has tarred the dollar as a subprime currency.
但是经济基础并非全部是在挫伤美元。货币也在经历痛苦，因为信用混乱集中在美元资产。投资者坚信，透明的市场和监管机构提高警觉，使美国成为更加安全的储存金钱的地方，这些都来自于最近几个星期的启示和综合 。自从信用风暴开始，私人资本净流入美国似乎已经大大缩水。次信贷危机搞乱了作为次信贷货币的美元。

In recent years a fall in private inflows has usually been offset by central banks in emerging economies that link their currencies to the dollar. This system (often known as Bretton Woods II) has thus propped up the dollar. But this time these central banks have been less willing to take up the slack. Right on cue, the cracks in Bretton Woods are becoming clear. China is routinely attacked in America and Europe for linking its currency to the dollar. Squeezed between rising oil prices and the falling dollar, the Gulf states face rising inflation: speculation is rife that one or more of them will modify their currency pegs at a regional meeting on December 3rd.
在近几年里，私人资本流入的下降通常也被中央银行在新兴经济体里补偿了，这些经济便是靠他们的货币对美元来联系的。就是这个系统（通常称为布雷顿森林II）支撑了美元。但这个时候中央的这些银行已不太愿意补偿这些下降。这些正好暗示，布雷顿森林里的瓦解正变得清晰。中国经常因为其货币与美元的汇率而抨击美国和欧洲国家。受困于石油价格上涨和美元贬值，海湾国家面临通货膨胀率的上升：投机将会盛行：在12月3日的一次区域会议上，越来越多的人，他们会修改其货币钉住。

Handle with care

There you have it: the ingredients of a nasty crash. But self-interest and sensible policy can cut the odds of trouble. The first step is for American policymakers to pay more heed to their currency. For all their talk about a strong dollar, American officials have behaved as if they cared little about its worth. A reserve currency is supposed to be a store of value; by running a huge current-account deficit America has left the dollar vulnerable. At such a tricky time, benign neglect will no longer do. For the moment, this need mean little more than some carefully chosen words. If the slide becomes chaotic, it could demand currency-market intervention and a willingness to hold back interest-rate cuts for the sake of the dollar.

小心处理

假设你拥有一部分：成分是很糟糕的那种。但是自身的利益而明智的政策可以降低赔率的麻烦。第一步就是美国的决策者要多听注意他们的货币。他们所有的都谈论强势美元政策，美国官员已表现得对于它的价值关心得太少了。储备货币是一个价值存储;运行庞大的经常帐赤字，美国已经使美元走向弱势。在这样一个微妙的时间，良性忽视将不再起作用。就目前而言，这种需要意味着要更加细心挑选的策略和舆论。如果下滑变得混乱，它可能要求对货币市场进行干预，并表示为了美元愿意阻止利息的利率下调。

The other part of the solution lies elsewhere, particularly with those countries with dollar-pegging currencies. These economies need to allow their currencies to rise, both to curb inflation and encourage the rebalancing of the global economy. Appreciation would mean that these countries accumulated new dollar reserves at a slower pace. That in turn would lead to a loss of the dollar's pre-eminence and the emergence of other reserve currencies: there is no rule to say you can have only one reserve currency. But this need not—and in today's febrile environment must not—mean dumping existing dollar reserves. That would impose a far higher cost on everyone, including the dumpers.
其他部分的解决办法是在其他地方，特别是与那些货币与美元挂钩的国家。这些经济体有必要允许其货币上涨，全面地抑制通货膨胀和鼓励重新平衡全球经济。升值将意味着，这些国家以缓慢的速度 积累了新的美元储备。这反过来会导致美元的预隆起的降低，并出现其他储备货币：我们并没有任何规则说，你可以只有一个储备货币。不过，这不需要意味着，尤其在今天的高热环境中，必须不等同于倾销现有的美元储备。对每一个人，包括倾销着，这样可能远远高于成本。

The history of international co-operation on currencies is patchy. But China and the oil-rich Gulf states have ample reason to play their part in an orderly decline of the dollar's dominance. Despite the opprobrium heaped on them, the Chinese do not want to see the Fed's hands tied by a dollar crisis; nor do they want to see the euro zone, one of their best markets, slow sharply; and they have little interest in the external value of their existing dollar reserves plunging. Beyond all that, China's leaders want to be taken seriously as responsible actors in the international system. Now is their chance.
历史上的国际合作行动，对货币总是凑合的。但中国和石油丰富的海湾国家有充分的理由，在美元的统治地位有秩序的衰落的时候发挥它们。尽管耻辱全加在他们头上，中国不希望看到美联储被美元危机双手反绑，他们希望看到他们的一个最好的市场，欧元区域急剧放缓。在现有的美元储备大幅下降的附加价值上，他们的兴趣不也大 。总之，中国的领导人，希望在国际体系里，作为一个负责任的执行者受到别人的认真对待。而现在正是他们的机会。